I grew up outside of a small town of about 8,000. If we wanted to go anywhere other than the local crick we needed to drive. Imagine my surprise when I was 14 and visited Montreal: a massive subway system and underground malls! Big city folk had a whole different lifestyle.
Now I live in Atlanta and drive everywhere.
My experience in Atlanta isn't unique. See the graph below, which shows average daily usage of all public transit in a city. (You can filter to a specific type in the bottom right.) New York City has more than twice the per capita public transit usage of any other metro area. Most metros have less than 0.1 daily trips per person. Those trips are unlinked (i.e. a transfer counts as another trip) and don't count return trips, so in most metros less than 5% of the population uses public transit on a given day.
This leads people to say, "the public transportation in city X sucks". We've all heard it. But look at the graph again. New York City has twice the transit usage of any other city, but is also more than twice as dense (denoted by color). Why does this matter? Based on average density, in New York City 6,100 people live within a quarter mile of each metro stop1 while 430 people in Atlanta live within a quarter mile of each metro stop. Also, the alternative (driving) is much worse in a denser city. Traffic may not be great in Atlanta, but its far worse in a city with 15 times the density.
So, how does Atlanta's transit stack up when controlling for density? See the graph below. Atlanta is one of the least dense big metros in America, but compared to similarly dense metro ares, Atlanta has a high rate of public transit usage. For example, observe Jacksonville which also has a little more than two thousand persons per square mile. Jacksonville has about 0.03 daily trips per capita and is right on the trend line (the average for similarly dense cities). Atlanta has over twice the usage of Jacksonville.
This visual is full of other fun information. Washington DC and Boston are the two biggest public transportation over-achievers. Los Angeles, even though it has more public transit than most metros, is one of the biggest under-achievers, along with San Jose and Riverside. Click on the Los Angeles circle to see that nearly all of their public transit comes from bus, or click on the orange segment of the US map to see that western cities fall into two distinct trends of public transit vs. density.
The last visual gives us an idea of how a city's transit use is changing. Raleigh has more than doubled their transit use in the past twelve years, but their current rate (as represented by color-coding) is only 0.02 per capita, so the actual increase was slight. Scrolling down the graphs and looking for color outliers shows that Salt Lake City, Seattle, and New York City all had impressive gains in metro use.
Atlanta's public transit use declined by 9% over the past twelve years and was the only city to see a decline in heavy rail usage. Where does this put Atlanta going forward?
This post is about public transit, but what really matters is quality of life. I don't actually drive everywhere; I live in the Old Fourth Ward and can walk to great coffee shops and parks. I have a ten minute driving commute to my office downtown. Atlanta's Beltline project and related push for mixed use development should make a lifestyle of walkable neighborhoods and short commutes accessible for more people. And as that happens I expect Atlanta to grow in density and public transit.
Now I live in Atlanta and drive everywhere.
My experience in Atlanta isn't unique. See the graph below, which shows average daily usage of all public transit in a city. (You can filter to a specific type in the bottom right.) New York City has more than twice the per capita public transit usage of any other metro area. Most metros have less than 0.1 daily trips per person. Those trips are unlinked (i.e. a transfer counts as another trip) and don't count return trips, so in most metros less than 5% of the population uses public transit on a given day.
This leads people to say, "the public transportation in city X sucks". We've all heard it. But look at the graph again. New York City has twice the transit usage of any other city, but is also more than twice as dense (denoted by color). Why does this matter? Based on average density, in New York City 6,100 people live within a quarter mile of each metro stop1 while 430 people in Atlanta live within a quarter mile of each metro stop. Also, the alternative (driving) is much worse in a denser city. Traffic may not be great in Atlanta, but its far worse in a city with 15 times the density.
So, how does Atlanta's transit stack up when controlling for density? See the graph below. Atlanta is one of the least dense big metros in America, but compared to similarly dense metro ares, Atlanta has a high rate of public transit usage. For example, observe Jacksonville which also has a little more than two thousand persons per square mile. Jacksonville has about 0.03 daily trips per capita and is right on the trend line (the average for similarly dense cities). Atlanta has over twice the usage of Jacksonville.
The last visual gives us an idea of how a city's transit use is changing. Raleigh has more than doubled their transit use in the past twelve years, but their current rate (as represented by color-coding) is only 0.02 per capita, so the actual increase was slight. Scrolling down the graphs and looking for color outliers shows that Salt Lake City, Seattle, and New York City all had impressive gains in metro use.
Atlanta's public transit use declined by 9% over the past twelve years and was the only city to see a decline in heavy rail usage. Where does this put Atlanta going forward?
This post is about public transit, but what really matters is quality of life. I don't actually drive everywhere; I live in the Old Fourth Ward and can walk to great coffee shops and parks. I have a ten minute driving commute to my office downtown. Atlanta's Beltline project and related push for mixed use development should make a lifestyle of walkable neighborhoods and short commutes accessible for more people. And as that happens I expect Atlanta to grow in density and public transit.
Notes
- All population information is from the 2010 census, and uses population-weighted density to be more meaningful.
- Transportation data is from the American Public Transit Association, available on their website. (See the monthly data)
- The APTA uses urbanized areas (UZAs) to report usage, while I only had population-weighted densities for metro areas, which sometimes encompass multiple UZAs. I was able to merge the two with a name crosswalk, but did have to look up a few by hand.
- I suspect a reporting error in the 2002 APTA data for Austin. Their drop is entirely from 2002 to 2003, and in privately provided public busing.
Hi John,
ReplyDeleteI really liked reading this analysis and think its a great use of Tableau. One extra wrinkle could be to look at change in transit usage versus change in density. Then though the question is which comes first? Is it a case of build transport and people will cluster around it? Or do transport planners respond to housing development? I think the former.
The other big question is around urban planning. Cities in the North have on the whole held back urban sprawl through laws, red tape, taxes etc... where as cities in the South have tended to encourage sprawl through looser planning laws, this in turn has kept land and house prices low and attracted population growth in areas with little public transport. As the trend for younger people and young families is flipping back to inner city living over the suburbs, and as environmental concerns increase it will be interesting to see how cities in the South respond. It sounds like Atlanta is already moving towards higher density and great public transport use.
It would be also cool to look at this internationally. How do European and Asian cities stack up? Sorry I'm asking more questions - but that's the sign of good analysis :-)
Thanks Peter! I think once a city is above a certain threshold of density, building rail stations will lead to increased density. But for less dense cities like Atlanta its still faster and easier to drive in most areas so a rail station is less of a draw.
DeleteAnother thing your comments made me think of: the graphs in this post default to all types of transit. A lot of folks think of heavy rail when they think public transit, but you can filter to that in the type filters. I didn't get into this, but heavy and light rail have seen pretty big increases in the past twelve years, while bus has dropped.
Great ideas for additional analyses. But this satisfies my desire for public transit data analysis for now :)
This is a terrific post.
ReplyDeleteLike PeterG above, I'm also curious about how these trends compare to other countries. But I imagine the source data probably isn't directly comparable.
Thanks! When I was researching this post I saw an international graph of transit versus density in excel, but I'm having trouble finding it now.
DeleteHere's a chart comparing public transport mode share with population density across 41 US, Canadian and Australian cities. Note the discussion of weighted vs average density.
Deletehttp://blogs.crikey.com.au/theurbanist/2011/02/05/index-php4753/
Thanks! I hadn't looked at the non-weighted densities. Makes a huge difference.
DeleteVery impressive analysis. Thanks. What explains the great rise of Raleigh in the last decade?
ReplyDeleteAbout half of that is population growth- they're one of the fastest growing metro areas. I used 2010 population as my denominator all years. (Bleg: dataset of annual metro population?) As for the rest of the change, remember they still only have about 1% of their population riding the bus.
DeleteGreat viz! I'm learning that the second most-popular category of transport in Seattle is 'other'. Any idea what this encompasses?
ReplyDeleteThanks! Good question. Select Seattle on the scatter plot graph. Hover over the "other" bar, then click the "view data" icon (looks like a little table) in the tool tip. Then click the "underlying" tab.
DeleteIts mostly ferry (~23M per year), and commuter bus (~18M per year).
New Orleans is the only city with more "Other".
Seattle is also the only city to make significant use of commuter buses.
DeleteI imagine that's related to how their buses also use the light rail tunnel to avoid city-center traffic? (And bridge traffic?) I've only spent a little time in Seattle, but that was really cool.
DeleteGreat Post!
ReplyDeleteFascinating, but a few questions.
ReplyDelete1. How did you treat commuter rail systems that span multiple metro areas?
2. What led you to use weighted population?
3. A clarification about UZAs in the APTA data versus yours - so would the data for "San Francisco" here include ridership on AC Transit (serving the East Bay / Oakland) for example?
Thanks!
Hi Jonah, thanks for reading.
ReplyDelete1. I split them evenly between metros. Great question.
2. Weighted density is the density people actually experience. Otherwise, if a metro area contains some farmland, it throws off the density. Commenter Alan shared a nice link on this topic.
3. Yea. I found the corresponding metro for each UZA and coded accordingly.
This comment has been removed by the author.
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The final round of voting will be underway, as the 2019 Daytime Emmy Awards nominations were announced back in March to include various soap opera actors hoping to take home an Emmy statuette. The live ceremony will not be televised but fans will be able to watch the 2019 Daytime Emmys live streamed online via social media platforms such 46th Daytime Emmy Awards Nommés Et Lauréats Facebook Live, Twitter and Instagram. Earlier, we reported that Extra’s Mario Lopez and The Talk’s Sheryl Underwood will host the 2019 Daytime Emmys ceremony. The Talk has won a few Daytime Emmys over the years since its debut on October 18, 2010 as part of CBS’ Daytime programming. The show is currently in its 9th season and discusses the latest headlines.
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On September 18, 2018, Soaps.com first announced the air date for this year’s the 46thth Annual Daytime Emmys Awards, which will be held at the Pasadena Civic Auditorium at 300 E Green Street in Pasadena, California on Sunday May 5 to honor The Bold and the Beautiful, Days of our Lives, General Hospital and The Young and the Restless along with their actors. Following the big night where soap stars and other daytime personalities come together to celebrate excellence in American Will The Daytime Emmy Awards Be Televised television, winners will join hosts Sheryl Underwood, Sharon Osborne, Eve and Carrie Ann Inaba for The Talk’s After Party on Monday May 6 at 2:00 PM Eastern. Former host and creator Sara Gilbert announced on Tuesday April 9 that she would be leaving the talk show but would return for guest-hosting in the future.
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Canelo Alvarez is set to face Daniel Jacobs on May 4 and the Mexican brawler is busy training for the said fight. However, that does not mean that the 28-year-old is not accommodating visitors. In fact, he welcomed Maverick Carter recently and got something from NBA star LeBron James. According to TMZ Sports, Carter took a trip to Alvarez’ training camp in San Diego and gave the Mexican some hot kicks. They were a pair of LeBron 16 “Martin” shoes, one of the most coveted shoes in the market. Canelo Alvarez vs Daniel Jacobs Predictions Odds Preview was awed by the gift and told Carter to give James his thanks for the kicks. For those who may be unaware, James and Carter are producing a docuseries of the fight.
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Boxing fans wanted Crawford to face IBF titlist Errol Spence Jr. tosee who the king of the division and the sport would be. Spence fought Mikey Garcia in March instead, so Crawford went to one of the biggest names in the game. Khan won the 140-pound WBA title from Andreas Kotelnik in July 2009. The 32-year-old made four straight defenses of the belt before adding the IBF strap in when he scored a fifth-round knockout of Zab Judah in July 2011. The sentiment is that Jacob, 32, will be one of the stiffest tests of When Is Canelo Alvarez's Next Fight Date Time Price which is saying something, considering the Mexican star has been inside the ring two times with Golovkin and Mayweather. Boxing pundits and fans alike feel Khan has seen his better days, and Crawford will make it look rather easy. Khan possesses the experience and packs a hard enough punch to where he can give Crawford plenty of problems.
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Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez will defend his WBA and WBC middleweight titles against IBF champion Daniel Jacobs in title unification fight in Las Vegas. Canelo returns to the middleweight division to cement his dominance after fighting in another division against Rocky Fielding to obtain the WBA super middleweight title. The American boxer won the vacant IBF middleweight title stripped from Gennady Golovkin after winning by split decision against Sergiy Derevyanchenko last year. Sportsmail will provide you all you need to know for Jacobs vs Alvarez Boxing Buy Las Vegas Tickets including time, date and location plus how to watch, ticket prices and latest odds. According to boxing records website Boxrec , Ryder made his professional debut against Ben Deghani in 2010. Ryder is currently on a three-fight win streak going back to October 2017.
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